Jun 16 2006
Is Mexico next?
The leftiness south of the border could be spreading to our doorstep. There is a distinct possibility that the leftist Mexican presidential candidate Manuel Lopez Obrador is gaining in the polls. Now, this is news to me, but from a preliminary peek around, although he has put much emphasis on his campaign in ending poverty, (his slogan is “For the Good of Everyone, the Poor First”), he’s no Chavez. There’s no talk of nationalization of the natural resources, anti-American rhetoric, and the like. One premise that sounds promising, though is he has talked about renegotiating abysmal trade deals such as NAFTA and such. I’ll be following this one. Anything that has the elite class nervous can’t be all that bad.
One Response to “Is Mexico next?”
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AMLO would win with a limited margin. He wouldn’t have the mandate needed to become a foundational president, like Chavez and Morales, who are rebuilding from scratch practically all government institutions. Congress would be divided and he would have to negotiate. Whatever his actual agenda is, populist, neo socialist, third way, he will have to build consensus for it, which is, from my point of view, a good thing.
In terms of style I see him closer to Alan García than Chavez but who knows, when Chavez ran for president he made all he could to moderate his image and convince the world that he was pro-business. He said, for instance, in several occasions that he wouldn’t renegotiate oil concessions and when he became president he renegotiated everything.
What I am trying to tell is that these guys run with one thing in mind, the presidential seat. Once they are there everything changes.